Truckload rates are on the rise   

Posted By:  Tom Sanderson 
Date Posted:  Thursday, November 04, 2010  11:29 AM


Stephens Inc. released their 3rd quarter update on publicly traded TL carriers indicating that in Q3 rates per loaded mile excluding fuel surcharge were up 2.4%% from Q2 of this year. That is the third largest sequential increase in the 18-year history of the index. From 2009, the Stephens TL index is up 4%. The data does not necessarily represent the entire TL industry as the publicly traded carriers tend to be larger and more successful in general so are also likely to be more successful in raising rates. In addition, shorter lengths of haul increase revenue per mile without necessarily being indicative of price increases. Clearly though, we are in a period of rising TL rates that is expected to accelerate in 2011 if there is any economic recovery to accompany the upcoming capacity and productivity-damaging regulations such as CSA 2010 and changes in hours of service. Stephens is predicting TL rates will increase by 3-5% in 2011.

Graph reproduced with permission from Stephens Inc. For more information contact: Jack Waldo at jwaldo@stephens.com or Justin Long at justin.long@stephens.com

 
Comments:  (2)
Categories: Carrier rate graphs
 

Comments


Kevin  commented on  Sunday, November 14, 2010  7:25 PM 
I do not see much evidence of this. Clearly, this is a "lane by lane" situation and some lanes have seen significant capacity shortfall resulting in higher rates but others have not. I also see very little evidence of a significant up turn in the economy.

Finally, with products becoming digital (i.e., books, movies etc.) and with the shrinking packaging along with things becoming very concentrated, I still see significant over capacity in general for time to come.

Tom Sanderson  commented on  Tuesday, November 23, 2010  5:22 PM 
I agree that the evidence varies by geography and that in contract rates there is not as much carrier rate pressure as in spot rates. We have not seen a 2.4% increase in rates for freight we manage or bids we are running. The large public carriers tend to be price leaders during recoveries, and their average rates are already increasing based on their reported data.

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