Truckload dry van index is not showing a year-end decline   

Morgan Stanley's dry van truckload freight index has flattened out at a level slightly below the 1995-2008 average for this time of year. The index is not dropping as much as was the case at the end of 2006 and 2008, but is closer to the pattern of 2007, which finished the year with a slight tightening of capacity. Capacity tightness has eased significantly compared to Q2 2010. While capacity remains tighter than in 2009, the spread between 2009 and 2010 has narrowed. The index measures incremental demand for dry-van truckload services compared to incremental supply. The higher the index the tighter is capacity relative to demand when compared to a prior period. In Q2 it was starting to look like we may see a repeat of the TL capacity shortages of 2004 and 2005. While that has not happened yet, we have also not seen as readily available capacity at this time of year as has been the case in recent years.

Graph reproduced with permission from Morgan Stanley. For more information contact: Adam Longson at Adam.Longson@morganstanley.com or Bill Green at William.Greene@morganstanley.com.