Jan 312011

Flatbed capacity is tighter than normal to start 2011

Posted By: Tom Sanderson
Date Posted:  Monday, January 31, 2011  3:00 PM

Morgan Stanley's flatbed freight index is holding steady from the end of 2010 and while far off the pace of Q2 2010, capacity is tighter than usual for January. This means that capacity is far more readily available at this time compared to Q2 but it is still a somewhat more tight capacity environment than at this time in previous years. The flatbed market was particularly hard hit by the fall off in housing starts, but has gained some ground with the growth in U. S. manufacturing. The index measures incremental demand for flatbed truckload services compared to incremental supply. The higher the index the tighter is capacity relative to demand when compared to a prior period.

Graph reproduced with permission from Morgan Stanley. For more information contact: Adam Longson at Adam.Longson@morganstanley.com or Bill Green at William.Greene@morganstanley.com.


Comments:  (0)
Categories: Morgan Stanley capacity and demand graphs
Jan 312011

Morgan Stanley's refrigerated truckload freight index indicates record tightness for January

Posted By: Tom Sanderson
Date Posted:  Monday, January 31, 2011  12:00 PM

Morgan Stanley's refrigerated truckload freight index starts 2011 at a very high level indicating very tight capacity for this time of year. The index had been rising over the last few months, but has dropped off in the last few weeks. The index is not far below the level of Q2 2010 when capacity was extremely tight. Refrigerated capacity is very tight relative all of the reference years for January. The pricing environment in this segment clearly favors the carriers at this point. The index measures incremental demand for refrigerated truckload services compared to incremental supply. The higher the index the tighter is capacity relative to demand when compared to a prior period.

Graph reproduced with permission from Morgan Stanley. For more information contact: Adam Longson at Adam.Longson@morganstanley.com or Bill Green at William.Greene@morganstanley.com.


Comments:  (0)
Categories: Morgan Stanley capacity and demand graphs
Jan 312011

Morgan Stanley's dry van truckload freight index indicates tighter than normal capacity for this time of year

Posted By: Tom Sanderson
Date Posted:  Monday, January 31, 2011  7:54 AM

Morgan Stanley's dry van truckload freight index indicates tighter than normal capacity for this time of year. Only the trucking boom years of 2004 and 2005 started the year with capacity as tight as early 2011. The index did not drop at the end of 2010 contrary to most years. Capacity tightness has eased significantly compared to Q2 2010. The index measures incremental demand for dry-van truckload services compared to incremental supply. The higher the index the tighter is capacity relative to demand when compared to a prior period. While capacity is not tight at this time, we do expect capacity to tighten throughout 2011.

Graph reproduced with permission from Morgan Stanley. For more information contact: Adam Longson at Adam.Longson@morganstanley.com or Bill Green at William.Greene@morganstanley.com.


Comments:  (0)
Categories: Morgan Stanley capacity and demand graphs
Jan 142011

Auto sales continue to exceed a 12 million annual pace

Posted By: Tom Sanderson
Date Posted:  Friday, January 14, 2011  2:15 PM

Annualized seasonally adjusted U.S. sales of domestic and foreign autos and light trucks totaled 12.494 million in December; the third month in a row over 12 million, and only the fifth month over 12 million since April 2007 (one of which was Cash for Clunkers induced). Sales rose 13% from December of 2009. Using our more stable 3-month moving average, sales are up 14% from the prior year. Sales had been fairly stable between March and September of 2010, but in Q4 sales accelerated. Auto sales remain about 25% below the average annual sales of 16.7 million from January of 2001 to December of 2007, before sales started to decline in 2008. The low point for sales were the first six months of 2009, when annualized sales averaged 9.621 million. It is clear from the data that the $3 billion Cash for Clunkers program did nothing but reward people for buying cars later or earlier than they had already planned. Our graph shows a 3-month moving average of seasonally adjusted annual rates to smooth out some of the month-to-month volatility.


Comments:  (0)
Categories: Auto sales and assemblies
Jan 122011

Stephens sees modest increases in LTL pricing through 2011 and 2012

Posted By: Tom Sanderson
Date Posted:  Wednesday, January 12, 2011  1:00 PM

Stephens Inc. expects 2011 LTL pricing to recover the ground carriers lost in 2010, but they don't see full recovery of pre-recession LTL pricing even through 2012. The 2010 estimate reflects a 3.4% drop from 2009 (117.7 to 113.7) which followed a larger 4.6% drop from 2008 to 2009. In 2009, LTL carriers were pricing aggressively to win share from weaker competitors. In 2011, Stevens expects a 3.4% increase to get back to 117.6 and then a 3.3% increase in 2012. The challenges facing LTL carriers are apparent with pricing in 2010 roughly equivalent to 2002 pricing, despite increases in most trucking related costs. Some of the capacity issues that will impact the TL segment, like CSA 2010 and hours of service, are not as prevalent in the LTL segment.


Comments:  (0)
Categories: Carrier rate graphs
Jan 122011

Manufacturing growth remains strong

Posted By: Tom Sanderson
Date Posted:  Wednesday, January 12, 2011  10:00 AM

The Institute of Supply Management reported that the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) increased from 56.6 in November to 57.0 in December. This represents 17 consecutive months of growth and the highest index since May 2010. A PMI over 50 indicates growth while a PMI under 50 indicates contraction in the manufacturing sector of the economy. The index reached a low of 32.5 in December 2008 but then recovered more quickly than other areas of the economy and remains one of the brighter spots in the economy today. The vertical bars in the graph represent recessions.


Comments:  (0)
Categories: ISM manufacturing index
Jan 112011

Diesel prices continue to climb

Posted By: Tom Sanderson
Date Posted:  Tuesday, January 11, 2011  9:03 PM

Weekly retail on-highway U.S. diesel prices continued to climb, albeit modestly, rising to $3.333 per gallon, a 0.2 cent increase. Diesel prices have risen 65% since bottoming out at $2.023 on March 16, 2009. More recently, diesel is up 13% since late September, when the price was $2.951 per gallon. A view of weekly prices over the last 3 years in ominous, as 2011 is starting off with much higher prices than seen in 2009 or 2010 (second graph). With the economy showing glimmers of hope and the Fed intent on a weak dollar to support exports, a return to 2008 diesel fuel prices is certainly not out of the question. Prices are at the highest level since October 2008, when prices were rapidly falling. Diesel prices peaked at $4.764 per gallon in July of 2008 and were above $3 per gallon from September 24, 2007 to November 3, 2008.


Comments:  (0)
Categories: Diesel fuel prices
Jan 052011

Diesel prices start 2011 at highest point in over two years

Posted By: Tom Sanderson
Date Posted:  Wednesday, January 05, 2011  8:38 AM

Weekly retail on-highway U.S. diesel prices increased by 3.7 cents to $3.331 per gallon, and are up 16.9 cents in the last 5 weeks. Prices are at the highest level since 10/20/08, when prices were rapidly falling. Diesel prices peaked at $4.764 per gallon in July of 2008 and were above $3 per gallon from September 24, 2007 to November 3, 2008. Prices start off 2011 at about the same level as January of 2008 ($3.387). That could be an ominous indicator of what this year has in store for diesel prices.


Comments:  (0)
Categories:
Jan 042011

Flatbed capacity tighter than normal for January, but not nearly as tight as Q2 2010

Posted By: Tom Sanderson
Date Posted:  Tuesday, January 04, 2011  5:00 PM

Morgan Stanley's flatbed freight index is holding steady and is far off the pace of Q2 2010 indicating more readily available capacity at this time compared to Q2 but still a somewhat more tight capacity environment than at this time in previous years. The normal Q4 loosening of flatbed capacity did not happen in 2010. The flatbed market was particularly hard hit by the fall off in housing starts, but has gained some ground with the growth in U. S. manufacturing. The index measures incremental demand for flatbed truckload services compared to incremental supply. The higher the index the tighter is capacity relative to demand when compared to a prior period.

Graph reproduced with permission from Morgan Stanley. For more information contact: Adam Longson at Adam.Longson@morganstanley.com or Bill Green at William.Greene@morganstanley.com.


Comments:  (1)
Categories: Morgan Stanley capacity and demand graphs
Jan 042011

Refrigerated capacity is very tight

Posted By: Tom Sanderson
Date Posted:  Tuesday, January 04, 2011  2:00 PM

Morgan Stanley's refrigerated truckload freight index starts 2011 at a very high level indicating very tight capacity for this time of year. The index has been rising over the last few months. The index is not far below the level of Q2 2010 when capacity was extremely tight. Refrigerated capacity continues to be very tight relative to 2009 and to most other recent years. The exception is the hurricane-induced capacity shortages at the end of 2005 and the strong freight market at the end of 2004. The pricing environment in this segment clearly favors the carriers at this point. The index measures incremental demand for refrigerated truckload services compared to incremental supply. The higher the index the tighter is capacity relative to demand when compared to a prior period.

Graph reproduced with permission from Morgan Stanley. For more information contact: Adam Longson at Adam.Longson@morganstanley.com or Bill Green at William.Greene@morganstanley.com.


Comments:  (0)
Categories: Morgan Stanley capacity and demand graphs
 Next >>