Stephens Inc. expects TL rates to increase 4-5% in 2011   

Stephens Inc. released their full year 2010 update on publicly traded TL carriers reporting that rates per loaded mile excluding fuel surcharge were up 2.0% from 2009. Rates were accelerating late in the year with Q4 of 2010 coming in 5.1% higher than Q4 of 2009. Stephens is expecting 2011 TL rates to increase by 4-5%. The data does not necessarily represent the entire TL industry as the publicly traded carriers tend to be larger and more successful in general so are also likely to be more successful in raising rates. In addition, shorter lengths of haul increase revenue per mile without necessarily being indicative of price increases. One interesting note in the report is that length of haul was up 1% from 2009 to 2010 after declining in every year since 2002. Clearly though, we are in a period of rising TL rates that is expected to accelerate in 2011 if there is any economic recovery to accompany the upcoming capacity and productivity-damaging regulations such as CSA 2010 and changes in hours of service.

Graph reproduced with permission from Stephens Inc. For more information contact: Jack Waldo at jwaldo@stephens.com or Justin Long at justin.long@stephens.com