Morgan Stanley indicates dry van capacity shortage continues to ease   

Posted By:  Tom Sanderson 
Date Posted:  Tuesday, May 24, 2011  4:49 PM


Morgan Stanley's dry van truckload freight index indicates significant easing of tight capacity. Capacity tightness is about at the '95-'10 average for this time of year, as the index has dropped quite a bit in the last few weeks. The Q2 index is now well below the trucking boom years of 2004 and 2005. Capacity is also not as tight as in Q2 2010, when capacity was getting tighter and spot market prices were rising. The index measures incremental demand for dry-van truckload services compared to incremental supply. The higher the index the tighter is capacity relative to demand when compared to a prior period. This data raises questions about whether or not van capacity will tighten significantly in 2011, or perhaps remain more balanced until we see a broader economic recovery.

Graph reproduced with permission from Morgan Stanley. For more information contact: Adam Longson at Adam.Longson@morganstanley.com or Bill Greene at William.Greene@morganstanley.com

 
Comments:  (2)
Categories: Morgan Stanley capacity and demand graphs
 

Comments


Dave Jordan  commented on  Friday, June 10, 2011  7:22 PM 
Tom,

Can you tell me what the number on the left hand side of the graph represents specifically? I know the higher the number the tighter the capacity, but when asked about the numbers. What do they represent? Normally your axis on a chart is defined.

Any help would be appreciated.

Tom Sanderson  commented on  Monday, June 13, 2011  10:45 AM 
Dave

Here is the description from Morgan Stanley: "As a reminder, our Truckload Freight Index is a broad-based measure of incremental TL demand (numerator) versus incremental TL supply (denominator)." In past conversations with them I do not believe the index is to be treated a strictly numeric such that 6 means capacity is twice as tight as 3. Rather it is a broad means of comparing one period to another. A good way to think about it is to look at the 1995-2010 average line as "normal" capacity demand balance and the higher the current index is above that, the tighter is capacity. I hope that helps. Feel free to contact Morgan Stanley directly using the e-mail links on the posting.

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