Jul 292011

Worldwide oil consumption increased 3.15% in 2010

Posted By: Tom Sanderson
Date Posted:  Friday, July 29, 2011  5:02 PM

BP's Statistical Review of World Energy is a treasure trove of information about energy use across the globe and over time. Contrary to popular belief, the worldwide consumption of oil is not increasing at a rapid pace. In 2010, worldwide oil consumption grew by 3.15%, from 84.7 to 87.4 million barrels per day. Consumption naturally grew faster than normal coming out of the 2009 world recession. Over the period from 2000 to 2010, consumption grew 1.32% annually and from 1965 to 2010 consumption grew by 2.35% annually. Consumption patterns are changing across the globe.

Consumption in the Asia Pacific region grew the fastest in 2010 (5.3%) and from 1965-2010 (4.9% CAGR), but grew by only 2.6% annually between 2000 and 2010. The other fast growing regions are Africa, Middle East, Central and South America, where consumption grew by 4.6% in 2010, by 3.4% annually from 2000-2010, and by 3.9% annually from 1965-2010.

In contrast, Europe and Eurasia have seen the slowest growth in oil consumption. In 2010, consumption was up 0.3%; for the 2000-2010 period consumption declined slightly, and for the 1965-2010 period consumption grew by only 1.2% annually. North America had only slightly faster growth in consumption with 2010 up 2.1%; 2000-2010 down and 1965-2010 up by only 1.3% per year. For reference, the U.S. population has grown by 1.04% annually since 1965, while U.S. oil consumption has grown by 1.14% annually.

The long period of slow growth in oil consumption in North America and Europe have dramatically shifted global oil consumption. Whereas those two regions used to consume the vast majority of the world's oil (79.5% in 1965), in 2010 the most developed regions dropped below 50% of worldwide consumption for the first time. Asia-Pacific eclipsed North American consumption in 2007 and has widened the gap since then, now accounting for 31% of world demand. The Africa, Middle East, Central and South American region is quickly closing the gap on Europe and Eurasia in terms of total oil consumption.


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Categories: Diesel fuel prices
Jul 272011

Hours of Service (HOS) rules changes expected by October 28 despite flawed new studies

Posted By: Tom Sanderson
Date Posted:  Wednesday, July 27, 2011  12:02 PM

The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) in in the process of reviewing comments and reiterated that it is on track to issue final HOS rules by October 28. While there is no indication from FMCSA regarding its current view of the proposed changes, most observers believe that the final rules will eliminate one hour of daily driving time. The original deadline was July 26, but the agency realized it could not meet that date primarily due to four late and controversial studies on driver fatigue that the FMCSA hoped would bolster its case. The agency was obligated to re-open the comment period after the release of those studies. The push to reduce driving hours is led primarily by the Teamsters and the Public Citizen advocacy group that sued to overturn the 2003 HOS rules.

Regarding the four studies, Ronald R. Knipling, former head of FMCSA's research division and the first American to receive the Order of Merit from the International Road Transport Union for his work on truck safety, questioned the validity of the studies. Knipling criticized the sample of drivers, trucks, and crashes in the Penn State study and concluded "It would be erroneous and unwarranted to accept Penn State's principal findings and conclusions without extensive reanalysis, internal validation and external replication." Knipling' s conclusion on the Virginia Tech Transportation Institute study was that "more probing and self-challenging analyses must be performed before [the] study['s] findings can be accepted as sound science." Regarding the study of Florida transit bus drivers Knipling pointed out that obviously the nature of work is far different for a transit driver and an over-the-road truck driver rendering any comparisons meaningless. For an excellent summary of the ATA and NIT League position on the flaws of the four added studies I refer you to Truckinginfo, the web site of Heavy Duty Trucking magazine.

The NIT League is right on the mark with their comment that "The study shows no appreciable increase in crash risk between the 10th and 11th driving hours, which would support a change to the current rule."

We don't need costly regulations that do little or nothing to improve highway safety.


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Categories: Hours of Service
Jul 272011

U.S. auto assemblies remain flat

Posted By: Tom Sanderson
Date Posted:  Wednesday, July 27, 2011  11:38 AM

Annualized U.S. assemblies of autos and light trucks dropped slightly from 7.7 million in May to 7.6 million in June (seasonally adjusted). Assemblies have been relatively flat for the last 14 months ranging between 7.5 and 8.6 million units annualized (seasonally adjusted). Our graph is a 3-month moving average of the seasonally adjusted annualized assemblies. Year over year percentage growth using the three-month moving average has flattened out as numbers are no longer being compared to the trough of the recession. Average monthly seasonally adjusted assemblies were 11.4 million from January of 2001 through December of 2007 indicating that auto assemblies are still at depressed levels.


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Categories: Auto sales and assemblies
Jul 272011

New home inventories continue to set record low levels

Posted By: Tom Sanderson
Date Posted:  Wednesday, July 27, 2011  7:29 AM

Seasonally adjusted new home inventory decreased to 6.3 months of supply in June from 6.4 months in May. The average months of supply over the last 45 years is 6.2 so even by this measure the housing picture is improving. The absolute inventory of new homes continues to fall and is now at 165 thousand; lower than inventory levels in the 1960's. Any recovery in the rate of sales would quickly deplete the low absolute inventory level and lead to a significant increase in housing starts (and freight) but that does not appear likely in the near term. The vertical bars in the graphs represent recessions.


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Categories: Housing starts, sales, and inventory
Jul 262011

Diesel inches its way back towards $4 per gallon

Posted By: Tom Sanderson
Date Posted:  Tuesday, July 26, 2011  4:01 PM

Weekly retail on-highway U.S. diesel prices increased by 2.6 cents to $3.949 per gallon. Diesel has risen 19% year-to-date, from $3.331 in January, and has nearly doubled since bottoming out at $2.023 on March 16, 2009. A view of weekly prices over the last 3 years shows much higher prices than seen in 2009 or 2010 (second graph). Diesel prices peaked at $4.764 per gallon in July of 2008 and were above $3 per gallon from September 24, 2007 to November 3, 2008 (over 13 months). Prices have been back over $3 since October 4, 2010 (10 months). In 2008, diesel exceeded $4 per gallon for 23 straight weeks, compared with 6 straight weeks in 2011. It still seems likely to me that we will see $5 diesel before we see $3 diesel.


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Categories: Diesel fuel prices
Jul 262011

Housing starts increase in June

Posted By: Tom Sanderson
Date Posted:  Tuesday, July 26, 2011  3:53 PM

Housing starts increased to 629 thousand in June (seasonally adjusted annual rate) with single unit structures totaling 453 thousand. Starts had been under 600 thousand annualized for the previous four months. Total starts reached a low mark of 477k in April of 2009, while single unit starts bottomed out at 360k in January of 2009. Housing starts remain far below the average of just over 1.5 million per year over the last 40+ years, and even farther below the 2.2 million peak of the most recent housing boom. Total starts have been under 1 million (SAAR) for 36 straight months, averaging only 604k during this stretch. Since 1968, the U.S. population has grown from 200 million to over 300 million. Low housing starts not only impact transportation demand for building products but also for appliances, furniture, and other related items. The vertical bars represent recessions.


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Categories: Housing starts, sales, and inventory
Jul 262011

Retail sales continue to grow at a very sluggish pace

Posted By: Tom Sanderson
Date Posted:  Tuesday, July 26, 2011  3:47 PM

Seasonally adjusted real retail sales increased slightly in June to $172.9 billion from $172.3 billion in May. (Note that actual sales are deflated using CPI 1982-84=100.) Year-over-year growth was 4.5%, the fourth month in a row under 5%. From peak (Sep '07) to current, retail sales are off 4.1%, a much smaller percentage decline than what has occurred in the housing and auto markets. June sales were 10.5% higher than the trough (Mar '09) of the recent recession. Real retail sales have only recovered to the levels of early 2005, which is not much of a recovery. The vertical bars in the graph represent recessions.


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Categories: Retail sales and same store sales
Jul 192011

Progress on U.S. and Mexico cross border trucking

Posted By: Tom Sanderson
Date Posted:  Tuesday, July 19, 2011  1:19 PM

The United States and Mexico signed an agreement on July 5 to allow cross-border trucking and to eliminate the retaliatory tariffs Mexico placed on U.S. goods after we violated our NAFTA agreement to implement a trucking program. The Mexican side of the agreement is straightforward. Fifty percent of the tariffs are to be eliminated 10 days after signing the agreement and the remainder within 5 days of the first Mexican trucking company receiving its U.S. operating authority.

The Department of Transportation has specified strict but reasonable requirements on Mexican truckers wishing to operate north of the border. Among the requirements are complying with all Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards and using electronic monitoring systems to track hours-of-service compliance (EOBRs to be paid for by the FMCSA). All participating Mexican drivers will be required to demonstrate an ability to understand English and U.S. traffic signs. The U.S. Department of Transportation will review the complete driving record of each driver and require all drug testing samples to be analyzed in Department of Health and Human Services-certified laboratories located in the United States.

Mexican fleets passing the initial test will be granted provisional authority and will be inspected each time of entry in United States. After 18 months of safe performance (determined by a DOT performance evaluation and comprehensive review), a Mexican carrier can be granted permanent operating authority. Mexican motor carriers with provisional authority that participated in the 2007 pilot project and with safe operations will receive credit for the months operated and will be exempt from stage 1 inspection.

The agreement also requires that Mexico provide reciprocal authority for U.S. carriers to engage in cross-border trucking, but there is little likelihood of any U.S. carriers pursuing that authority.

This is a very positive outcome and a surprising resolution to an issue that was and still is adamantly opposed by organized labor and owner operators. From a practical standpoint, Mexican carriers are not likely to be overly aggressive in moving products into the interior of the U.S. because once here, they can only haul freight back to Mexico. (Note that this is the same requirement for U.S. or Canadian truckers moving freight across our northern border.) It will be challenging for Mexican carriers to gain access to the southbound freight unless they have relationships with U.S.-based 3PLs, truck brokers, or directly with shippers. At Transplace, we think the best opportunities will be to use Mexican carriers to bring freight further inland, such as to Dallas, where there is a greater likelihood of getting return loads to Mexico. We welcome the opportunity to work with many of the excellent Mexican trucking companies we work with inside of Mexico to take advantage of this new cross-border agreement. With the looming capacity shortage in the TL sector, we are pleased to finally see a government program that may actually increase trucking capacity.

Numerous groups have spoken out in support of the deal including the American Trucking Association, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, and the National Association of Manufacturers.


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Categories: Mexico cross border trucking
Jul 142011

Refrigerated capacity tightness at near record levels

Posted By: Tom Sanderson
Date Posted:  Thursday, July 14, 2011  5:59 PM

Morgan Stanley's refrigerated truckload freight index shows very tight capacity. The index dropped a little in Q2 but has regained all the lost ground to a high point for the year. The index is not far below the peak level of Q4 2005, and is roughly equal to the high point of 2010. Refrigerated capacity is very tight relative to all of the reference years through June. The pricing environment in this segment clearly favors the carriers at this point. The index measures incremental demand for refrigerated truckload services compared to incremental supply. The higher the index the tighter is capacity relative to demand when compared to a prior period.

Graph reproduced with permission from Morgan Stanley. For more information contact: Adam Longson at Adam.Longson@morganstanley.com or Bill Greene at William.Greene@morganstanley.com


Jul 142011

Dry van truckload capacity is getting tighter

Posted By: Tom Sanderson
Date Posted:  Thursday, July 14, 2011  5:51 PM

Morgan Stanley's dry van truckload freight index indicates capacity is tightening again. Capacity is somewhat tighter than the '95-'10 average for this time of year. The Q2 index was below the trucking boom years of 2004 and 2005, but as Q3 starts the gap is closing. Capacity is not quite as tight as this time last year, when capacity was getting tighter and spot market prices were rising. The index measures incremental demand for dry-van truckload services compared to incremental supply. The higher the index the tighter is capacity relative to demand when compared to a prior period. This data raises questions about whether or not van capacity will tighten significantly in 2011, or perhaps remain more balanced until we see a broader economic recovery.

Graph reproduced with permission from Morgan Stanley. For more information contact: Adam Longson at Adam.Longson@morganstanley.com or Bill Greene at William.Greene@morganstanley.com


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