Auto sales back above 12 million annual rate, but year-over-year growth is low single digits   

Annualized seasonally adjusted U.S. sales of domestic and foreign autos and light trucks totaled 12.197 million in July, recovering a little from two straights months under 12 million. Using our 3-month moving average, sales are up an anemic 3.2% from the prior year. The industry's hoped for 2011 sales of 13 million plus seems extremely unlikely at this point. Annualized sales averaged 13 million for the first four months of 2011, but only 11.8 million for the last three months. High unemployment, stock market gyrations, $4 gas, and worries about a double-dip recession are all working against an auto sales recovery. Auto sales remain about 27% below the average annual sales of 16.7 million from January of 2001 to December of 2007, before sales started to decline in 2008. The low point for sales were the first six months of 2009, when annualized sales averaged 9.621 million. It is clear from the data that the $3 billion Cash for Clunkers program did nothing but reward people for buying cars later or earlier than they had already planned. Our graph shows a 3-month moving average of seasonally adjusted annual rates to smooth out some of the month-to-month volatility.