Feb 012012

Auto sales top 13 million annual rate for fourth straight month

Posted By: Tom Sanderson
Date Posted:  Wednesday, February 01, 2012  11:19 AM

Annualized seasonally adjusted U.S. sales of domestic and foreign autos and light trucks totaled 13.5 million in December; the fourth month in a row over the 13 million mark. Using our 3-month moving average, sales are up 9.2% from the prior year. The industry's hoped for 2011 sales of 13 million plus did not happen, but 2012 should top that number. Annualized sales averaged 13 million for the first four months of 2011, and 13.3 million for the last four months, but the middle of the year was weak. High unemployment, stock market gyrations, $4 gas, and worries about a double-dip recession are all working against faster auto sales recovery. Auto sales remain about 19% below the average annual sales of 16.7 million from January of 2001 to December of 2007, before sales started to decline in 2008. The low point for sales were the first six months of 2009, when annualized sales averaged 9.6 million. It is clear from the data that the $3 billion Cash for Clunkers program did nothing but reward people for buying cars later or earlier than they had already planned. Our graph shows a 3-month moving average of seasonally adjusted annual rates to smooth out some of the month-to-month volatility.

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Categories: Auto sales and assemblies
Jan 032012

Auto assemblies decline in November

Posted By: Tom Sanderson
Date Posted:  Tuesday, January 03, 2012  8:51 AM

Annualized U.S. assemblies of autos and light trucks fell back to 8.4 million in November (seasonally adjusted). October assemblies were revised below the 9 million mark. Assemblies have been relatively flat for the previous 19 months ranging between 7.5 and 8.9 million units annualized (seasonally adjusted). Our graph is a 3-month moving average of the seasonally adjusted annualized assemblies. Year over year percentage growth using the three-month moving average is strong at 11.0%, reflecting weak 2010 assemblies. Average monthly seasonally adjusted assemblies were 11.4 million from January of 2001 through December of 2007 indicating that auto assemblies are still at depressed levels.

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Categories: Auto sales and assemblies
Dec 152011

Auto sales top 13 million pace for third straight month

Posted By: Tom Sanderson
Date Posted:  Thursday, December 15, 2011  11:01 AM

Annualized seasonally adjusted U.S. sales of domestic and foreign autos and light trucks totaled 13.6 million in November; the third month in a row over the 13 million mark. Using our 3-month moving average, sales are up 10.3% from the prior year. The industry's hoped for 2011 sales of 13 million plus will not happen. Annualized sales averaged 13 million for the first four months of 2011, but only 12.5 million for the last six months. High unemployment, stock market gyrations, $4 gas, and worries about a double-dip recession are all working against an auto sales recovery. Auto sales remain about 19% below the average annual sales of 16.7 million from January of 2001 to December of 2007, before sales started to decline in 2008. The low point for sales were the first six months of 2009, when annualized sales averaged 9.621 million. It is clear from the data that the $3 billion Cash for Clunkers program did nothing but reward people for buying cars later or earlier than they had already planned. Our graph shows a 3-month moving average of seasonally adjusted annual rates to smooth out some of the month-to-month volatility.

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Categories: Auto sales and assemblies
Dec 062011

Auto sales remain over 13 million annual rate for second straight month

Posted By: Tom Sanderson
Date Posted:  Tuesday, December 06, 2011  1:53 PM

Annualized seasonally adjusted U.S. sales of domestic and foreign autos and light trucks totaled 13.2 million in October; the second month in a row over the 13 million mark. Using our 3-month moving average, sales are up 8.5% from the prior year. The industry's hoped for 2011 sales of 13 million plus seems extremely unlikely at this point. Annualized sales averaged 13 million for the first four months of 2011, but only 12.3 million for the last six months. High unemployment, stock market gyrations, $4 gas, and worries about a double-dip recession are all working against an auto sales recovery. Auto sales remain about 21% below the average annual sales of 16.7 million from January of 2001 to December of 2007, before sales started to decline in 2008. The low point for sales were the first six months of 2009, when annualized sales averaged 9.621 million. It is clear from the data that the $3 billion Cash for Clunkers program did nothing but reward people for buying cars later or earlier than they had already planned. Our graph shows a 3-month moving average of seasonally adjusted annual rates to smooth out some of the month-to-month volatility.

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Categories: Auto sales and assemblies
Dec 062011

U.S. auto assemblies surge to 9 million annual pace

Posted By: Tom Sanderson
Date Posted:  Tuesday, December 06, 2011  10:39 AM

Annualized U.S. assemblies of autos and light trucks surged to 9.0 million in October (seasonally adjusted). The last time assemblies exceeded 9 million was July 2008. Assemblies had been relatively flat for the previous 17 months ranging between 7.5 and 8.6 million units annualized (seasonally adjusted). Our graph is a 3-month moving average of the seasonally adjusted annualized assemblies. Year over year percentage growth using the three-month moving average jumped to 11.4%. Average monthly seasonally adjusted assemblies were 11.4 million from January of 2001 through December of 2007 indicating that auto assemblies are still at depressed levels.

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Categories: Auto sales and assemblies
Nov 082011

Auto assemblies remain flat in September

Posted By: Tom Sanderson
Date Posted:  Tuesday, November 08, 2011  6:14 PM

Annualized U.S. assemblies of autos and light trucks remained unchanged at 8.5 million in September (seasonally adjusted). Assemblies have been relatively flat for the last 17 months ranging between 7.5 and 8.6 million units annualized (seasonally adjusted). Our graph is a 3-month moving average of the seasonally adjusted annualized assemblies. Year over year percentage growth using the three-month moving average is low single digits. Average monthly seasonally adjusted assemblies were 11.4 million from January of 2001 through December of 2007 indicating that auto assemblies are still at depressed levels.

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Categories: Auto sales and assemblies
Oct 132011

Auto sales surge in September

Posted By: Tom Sanderson
Date Posted:  Thursday, October 13, 2011  9:45 AM

Annualized seasonally adjusted U.S. sales of domestic and foreign autos and light trucks totaled 13.044 million in September; the first month since April over the 13 million mark, and up from just 12.1 million in August. Using our 3-month moving average, sales are up 7.7% from the prior year. The industry's hoped for 2011 sales of 13 million plus seems extremely unlikely at this point. Annualized sales averaged 13 million for the first four months of 2011, but only 12.1 million for the last five months. High unemployment, stock market gyrations, $4 gas, and worries about a double-dip recession are all working against an auto sales recovery. Auto sales remain about 22% below the average annual sales of 16.7 million from January of 2001 to December of 2007, before sales started to decline in 2008. The low point for sales were the first six months of 2009, when annualized sales averaged 9.621 million. It is clear from the data that the $3 billion Cash for Clunkers program did nothing but reward people for buying cars later or earlier than they had already planned. Our graph shows a 3-month moving average of seasonally adjusted annual rates to smooth out some of the month-to-month volatility.

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Categories: Auto sales and assemblies
Sep 092011

Auto sales remain at 12 million annual rate

Posted By: Tom Sanderson
Date Posted:  Friday, September 09, 2011  9:24 AM

Annualized seasonally adjusted U.S. sales of domestic and foreign autos and light trucks totaled 12.096 million in August; two straights months over 12 million. Using our 3-month moving average, sales are up only 5.0% from the prior year. The industry's hoped for 2011 sales of 13 million plus seems extremely unlikely at this point. Annualized sales averaged 13 million for the first four months of 2011, but only 11.9 million for the last four months. High unemployment, stock market gyrations, $4 gas, and worries about a double-dip recession are all working against an auto sales recovery. Auto sales remain about 27% below the average annual sales of 16.7 million from January of 2001 to December of 2007, before sales started to decline in 2008. The low point for sales were the first six months of 2009, when annualized sales averaged 9.621 million. It is clear from the data that the $3 billion Cash for Clunkers program did nothing but reward people for buying cars later or earlier than they had already planned. Our graph shows a 3-month moving average of seasonally adjusted annual rates to smooth out some of the month-to-month volatility.

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Categories: Auto sales and assemblies
Aug 192011

U.S. auto assemblies remain flat

Posted By: Tom Sanderson
Date Posted:  Friday, August 19, 2011  8:25 AM

Annualized U.S. assemblies of autos and light trucks increased from 7.6 million in June to 8.5 million in July (seasonally adjusted). Assemblies have been relatively flat for the last 15 months ranging between 7.5 and 8.6 million units annualized (seasonally adjusted). Non-seasonally adjusted assemblies of 6.05 million annualized in July were the lowest since July 2009. Our graph is a 3-month moving average of the seasonally adjusted annualized assemblies. Year over year percentage growth using the three-month moving average is nearly zero. Average monthly seasonally adjusted assemblies were 11.4 million from January of 2001 through December of 2007 indicating that auto assemblies are still at depressed levels.

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Categories: Auto sales and assemblies
Aug 102011

Auto sales back above 12 million annual rate, but year-over-year growth is low single digits

Posted By: Tom Sanderson
Date Posted:  Wednesday, August 10, 2011  11:33 AM

Annualized seasonally adjusted U.S. sales of domestic and foreign autos and light trucks totaled 12.197 million in July, recovering a little from two straights months under 12 million. Using our 3-month moving average, sales are up an anemic 3.2% from the prior year. The industry's hoped for 2011 sales of 13 million plus seems extremely unlikely at this point. Annualized sales averaged 13 million for the first four months of 2011, but only 11.8 million for the last three months. High unemployment, stock market gyrations, $4 gas, and worries about a double-dip recession are all working against an auto sales recovery. Auto sales remain about 27% below the average annual sales of 16.7 million from January of 2001 to December of 2007, before sales started to decline in 2008. The low point for sales were the first six months of 2009, when annualized sales averaged 9.621 million. It is clear from the data that the $3 billion Cash for Clunkers program did nothing but reward people for buying cars later or earlier than they had already planned. Our graph shows a 3-month moving average of seasonally adjusted annual rates to smooth out some of the month-to-month volatility.


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Categories: Auto sales and assemblies
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