Jan 162012

Cass data indicates TL linehaul rates increased 8.6% in 2011

Posted By: Tom Sanderson
Date Posted:  Monday, January 16, 2012  8:45 AM

Cass pays around $17 billion in freight bills annually and constructs a truckload pricing index in conjunction with Avondale Partners. The data indicated not only that TL rates were up 8.6% in 2011 but also that TL rates now exceed pre-recession levels. This seems a little high to me, and is certainly higher than what Transplace saw for our 3PL customers in 2011, but it is hard to argue with $17 billion in freight bills. As intermodal continues to gain share from over-the-road trucking, perhaps part of the change in Cass’s index is due to shorter TL length of haul. The link will take you to the Cass web site where you can view the graph and download the data points from 2005 to present.

The Cass data is also pretty consistent with TransCore, which reported contract TL rates rising 6.5% in 2011 while spot rates were up 7.4%.


Comments:  (0)
Categories: Carrier rate graphs
Nov 162011

LTL rates surge in Q3

Posted By: Tom Sanderson
Date Posted:  Wednesday, November 16, 2011  8:49 AM

Stephens Inc. reported that third quarter LTL rates increased 4.9% from Q3 2010 and 3.0% from Q2 of 2011. The year-over-year increase is the largest since Q3 2003. Stephens is predicting a 5-6% year-over-year increase in LTL rates in the second half of 2011, but they don't see full recovery of pre-recession LTL pricing even through 2012. In 2010 LTL rates dropped 3.7% (117.7 to 113.3) which followed a larger 4.6% drop from 2008 to 2009. In 2009, LTL carriers were pricing aggressively to win share from weaker competitors. The challenges facing LTL carriers are apparent with pricing in 2011 roughly equivalent to 2004 pricing, despite increases in most trucking related costs. Some of the capacity issues that will impact the TL segment, like CSA 2010 and hours of service, are not as relevant in the LTL segment.

Stephens LTL Q3 2011

Graph reproduced with permission from Stephens Inc. For more information contact: Jack Waldo at jwaldo@stephens.com or Tyler Bozynski at tyler.bozynski@stephens.com


Comments:  (0)
Categories: Carrier rate graphs
Nov 142011

TL rates continue to rise

Posted By: Tom Sanderson
Date Posted:  Monday, November 14, 2011  9:32 PM

Stephens Inc. released their third quarter 2011 update on publicly traded TL carriers reporting that rates per loaded mile excluding fuel surcharge increased 4.0% over the same quarter last year and 1.2% over Q2 2011. This marks 6 straight quarters of year-over-year gains. Stephens is expecting Q4 2011 TL rates to increase by 3-4%. The data does not necessarily represent the entire TL industry as the publicly traded carriers tend to be larger and more successful in general so are also likely to be more successful in raising rates. In addition, shorter lengths of haul increase revenue per mile without necessarily being indicative of price increases. Average length of haul dropped from 759 miles in 2006 to 609 in Q3 2011. We are in a period of rising TL rates that is expected to accelerate going into 2012 if there is any economic recovery to accompany the capacity and productivity-damaging regulations such as CSA and changes in hours of service.

Stifel TL sanpshot Q311

Graph reproduced with permission from Stephens Inc. For more information contact: Jack Waldo at jwaldo@stephens.com or Justin Long at justin.long@stephens.com


Comments:  (0)
Categories: Carrier rate graphs
Sep 062011

LTL rates show strong year-over-year gains

Posted By: Tom Sanderson
Date Posted:  Tuesday, September 06, 2011  5:36 PM

Stephens Inc. reported that second quarter LTL rates increased 4.4% from Q2 2010 and 0.9% from Q1 of 2011. The year-over-year Q2 increase is the largest since 2007. Stephens is predicting a 5-6% year-over-year increase in LTL rates in the second half of 2011, but they don't see full recovery of pre-recession LTL pricing even through 2012. In 2010 LTL rates dropped 3.7% (117.7 to 113.7) which followed a larger 4.6% drop from 2008 to 2009. In 2009, LTL carriers were pricing aggressively to win share from weaker competitors. The challenges facing LTL carriers are apparent with pricing in 2011 roughly equivalent to 2002-2003 pricing, despite increases in most trucking related costs. Some of the capacity issues that will impact the TL segment, like CSA 2010 and hours of service, are not as prevalent in the LTL segment.

Stephens LTL Q2 2011

Graph reproduced with permission from Stephens Inc. For more information contact: Jack Waldo at jwaldo@stephens.com or Tyler Bozynski at tyler.bozynski@stephens.com


Comments:  (0)
Categories: Carrier rate graphs
Aug 042011

Stephens reports strong Q2 pricing trends for TL carriers

Posted By: Tom Sanderson
Date Posted:  Thursday, August 04, 2011  5:20 PM

Stephens Inc. released their second quarter 2011 update on publicly traded TL carriers reporting that rates per loaded mile excluding fuel surcharge increased 5.2% over the same quarter last year and 2.8% over Q1 2011. This marks 5 straight quarters of year-over-year gains. Stephens is expecting second half 2011 TL rates to increase by 3-4%. The data does not necessarily represent the entire TL industry as the publicly traded carriers tend to be larger and more successful in general so are also likely to be more successful in raising rates. In addition, shorter lengths of haul increase revenue per mile without necessarily being indicative of price increases. Average length of haul dropped from 640 miles in 2010 to 615 in Q2 2011, resuming a long-run downward trend. We are in a period of rising TL rates that is expected to accelerate going into 2012 if there is any economic recovery to accompany the capacity and productivity-damaging regulations such as CSA and changes in hours of service.

Graph reproduced with permission from Stephens Inc. For more information contact: Jack Waldo at jwaldo@stephens.com or Justin Long at justin.long@stephens.com


Comments:  (0)
Categories: Carrier rate graphs
May 162011

Stephens reports modest year-over-year LTL rate increases in Q1

Posted By: Tom Sanderson
Date Posted:  Monday, May 16, 2011  2:41 PM

Stephens Inc. reported that first quarter LTL rates increased 2.6% from Q1 2010 but dropped 1.6% from Q4 of 2010. Stephens is predicting a 2% overall increase in LTL rates in 2011, but they don't see full recovery of pre-recession LTL pricing even through 2012. In 2010 LTL rates dropped 3.7% (117.7 to 113.7) which followed a larger 4.6% drop from 2008 to 2009. In 2009, LTL carriers were pricing aggressively to win share from weaker competitors. The challenges facing LTL carriers are apparent with pricing in 2011 roughly equivalent to 2002 pricing, despite increases in most trucking related costs. Some of the capacity issues that will impact the TL segment, like CSA 2010 and hours of service, are not as prevalent in the LTL segment.

Graph reproduced with permission from Stephens Inc. For more information contact: Jack Waldo at jwaldo@stephens.com or Tyler Bozynski at tyler.bozynski@stephens.com


Comments:  (0)
Categories: Carrier rate graphs
May 082011

Stephens indicates TL carriers’ rates at pre-recession levels

Posted By: Tom Sanderson
Date Posted:  Sunday, May 08, 2011  8:00 AM

Stephens Inc. released their first quarter 2011 update on publicly traded TL carriers reporting that rates per loaded mile excluding fuel surcharge now slightly exceed pre-recession prices. Rates are accelerating with Q1 of 2011 coming in 6.1% higher than Q1 of 2010. Stephens is expecting 2011 TL rates to increase by 4-5%. The data does not necessarily represent the entire TL industry as the publicly traded carriers tend to be larger and more successful in general so are also likely to be more successful in raising rates. In addition, shorter lengths of haul increase revenue per mile without necessarily being indicative of price increases. Average length of haul dropped from 640 miles in 2010 to 619 in Q1 2011, resuming a long-run downward trend. We are in a period of rising TL rates that is expected to accelerate through 2011 if there is any economic recovery to accompany the capacity and productivity-damaging regulations such as CSA 2010 and changes in hours of service.

Graph reproduced with permission from Stephens Inc. For more information contact: Jack Waldo at jwaldo@stephens.com or Justin Long at justin.long@stephens.com


Comments:  (0)
Categories: Carrier rate graphs
Mar 072011

Stephens Inc. expects TL rates to increase 4-5% in 2011

Posted By: Tom Sanderson
Date Posted:  Monday, March 07, 2011  4:07 PM

Stephens Inc. released their full year 2010 update on publicly traded TL carriers reporting that rates per loaded mile excluding fuel surcharge were up 2.0% from 2009. Rates were accelerating late in the year with Q4 of 2010 coming in 5.1% higher than Q4 of 2009. Stephens is expecting 2011 TL rates to increase by 4-5%. The data does not necessarily represent the entire TL industry as the publicly traded carriers tend to be larger and more successful in general so are also likely to be more successful in raising rates. In addition, shorter lengths of haul increase revenue per mile without necessarily being indicative of price increases. One interesting note in the report is that length of haul was up 1% from 2009 to 2010 after declining in every year since 2002. Clearly though, we are in a period of rising TL rates that is expected to accelerate in 2011 if there is any economic recovery to accompany the upcoming capacity and productivity-damaging regulations such as CSA 2010 and changes in hours of service.

Graph reproduced with permission from Stephens Inc. For more information contact: Jack Waldo at jwaldo@stephens.com or Justin Long at justin.long@stephens.com


Comments:  (0)
Categories: Carrier rate graphs
Jan 122011

Stephens sees modest increases in LTL pricing through 2011 and 2012

Posted By: Tom Sanderson
Date Posted:  Wednesday, January 12, 2011  1:00 PM

Stephens Inc. expects 2011 LTL pricing to recover the ground carriers lost in 2010, but they don't see full recovery of pre-recession LTL pricing even through 2012. The 2010 estimate reflects a 3.4% drop from 2009 (117.7 to 113.7) which followed a larger 4.6% drop from 2008 to 2009. In 2009, LTL carriers were pricing aggressively to win share from weaker competitors. In 2011, Stevens expects a 3.4% increase to get back to 117.6 and then a 3.3% increase in 2012. The challenges facing LTL carriers are apparent with pricing in 2010 roughly equivalent to 2002 pricing, despite increases in most trucking related costs. Some of the capacity issues that will impact the TL segment, like CSA 2010 and hours of service, are not as prevalent in the LTL segment.


Comments:  (0)
Categories: Carrier rate graphs
Dec 272010

LTL revenue per ton is up about 5% year-over-year

Posted By: Tom Sanderson
Date Posted:  Monday, December 27, 2010  2:09 PM

Stifel Nicolaus reports LTL yields ($/ton) running about 5% ahead of yields at the same time last year, but still well below yields seen prior to the recession. For 2011 Stifel is projecting 5-7 percent annual increases and then tapering off to less than 5% in 2012. It is important to keep in mind that yield is not the equivalent of price and can be influenced by changes in weight per shipment, length of haul, and freight classification.

 


Comments:  (0)
Categories: Carrier rate graphs
 Next >>