Jan 312012

New home inventories remain very low

Posted By: Tom Sanderson
Date Posted:  Tuesday, January 31, 2012  10:07 AM

The absolute inventory of new homes continues to fall and is now at 157 thousand (seasonally adjusted); lower than inventory levels in the 1960's. Seasonally adjusted new home inventories remain near 6 months of supply in December the lowest level since March 2006. The average months of supply over the last 48 years is 6.2 so even by this measure the housing picture is improving. Any recovery in the rate of sales would quickly deplete the low absolute inventory level and lead to a significant increase in housing starts (and freight) and perhaps we are nearing a point where this is possible. The vertical bars in the graphs represent recessions.

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Categories: Housing starts, sales, and inventory
Jan 312012

Retail sales continue to grow at a low single-digit pace

Posted By: Tom Sanderson
Date Posted:  Tuesday, January 31, 2012  8:05 AM

Seasonally adjusted real retail sales increased in December to $176.7 billion. (Note that actual sales are deflated using CPI 1982-84=100.) Year-over-year growth was 3.4%, the tenth month in a row under 5%. From peak (Sep '07) to current, retail sales are off 2.0%, a much smaller percentage decline than what has occurred in the housing and auto markets. December sales were 12.9% higher than the trough (Mar '09) of the recent recession. Real retail sales have only recovered to the levels of 2005, which is not much of a recovery. The vertical bars in the graph represent recessions.

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Categories: Housing starts, sales, and inventory
Jan 042012

Inventory of new homes drops below 160k for the first time

Posted By: Tom Sanderson
Date Posted:  Wednesday, January 04, 2012  9:02 AM

The absolute inventory of new homes continues to fall and is now at 158 thousand (seasonally adjusted); lower than inventory levels in the 1960's. Seasonally adjusted new home inventory fell to 6.0 months of supply in November the lowest level since March 2006. The average months of supply over the last 48 years is 6.2 so even by this measure the housing picture is improving. Any recovery in the rate of sales would quickly deplete the low absolute inventory level and lead to a significant increase in housing starts (and freight) and perhaps we are nearing a point where this is possible. The vertical bars in the graphs represent recessions.

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Categories: Housing starts, sales, and inventory
Jan 022012

Total housing starts at highest point since October 2008

Posted By: Tom Sanderson
Date Posted:  Monday, January 02, 2012  2:33 PM

Housing starts jumped to 685 thousand in November (seasonally adjusted annual rate), the highest level since October 2008 with single unit structures totaling 447 thousand. Total starts reached a low mark of 477k in April of 2009, while single unit starts bottomed out at 360k in January of 2009. Housing starts remain far below the average of just over 1.5 million per year over the last 40+ years, and even farther below the 2.2 million peak of the most recent housing boom. Total starts have been under 1 million (SAAR) for 41 straight months, far longer than in previous housing recessions, averaging only 607k during this stretch. Since 1968, the U.S. population has grown from 200 million to over 300 million. Low housing starts not only impact transportation demand for building products but also for appliances, furniture, and other related items. The vertical bars represent recessions.

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Categories: Housing starts, sales, and inventory
Dec 052011

New home inventory remains very low

Posted By: Tom Sanderson
Date Posted:  Monday, December 05, 2011  10:44 AM

The absolute inventory of new homes continues to fall and is now at 162 thousand (seasonally adjusted); lower than inventory levels in the 1960's. Seasonally adjusted new home inventory fell to 6.3 months of supply in October the lowest level since May 2006. The average months of supply over the last 48 years is 6.2 so even by this measure the housing picture is improving. Any recovery in the rate of sales would quickly deplete the low absolute inventory level and lead to a significant increase in housing starts (and freight) but that does not appear likely in the near term. The vertical bars in the graphs represent recessions.

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Categories: Housing starts, sales, and inventory
Dec 052011

Housing starts show no signs of growth

Posted By: Tom Sanderson
Date Posted:  Monday, December 05, 2011  9:37 AM

Housing starts were steady at 628 thousand in October (seasonally adjusted annual rate) with single unit structures totaling 430 thousand. Total starts reached a low mark of 477k in April of 2009, while single unit starts bottomed out at 360k in January of 2009. Housing starts remain far below the average of just over 1.5 million per year over the last 40+ years, and even farther below the 2.2 million peak of the most recent housing boom. Total starts have been under 1 million (SAAR) for 40 straight months, far longer than in previous housing recessions, averaging only 604k during this stretch. Since 1968, the U.S. population has grown from 200 million to over 300 million. Low housing starts not only impact transportation demand for building products but also for appliances, furniture, and other related items. The vertical bars represent recessions.

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Categories: Housing starts, sales, and inventory
Nov 082011

Total housing starts reach high mark for 2011

Posted By: Tom Sanderson
Date Posted:  Tuesday, November 08, 2011  6:05 PM

Housing starts jumped to 658 thousand in September (seasonally adjusted annual rate) with single unit structures totaling 425 thousand. Total starts reached a low mark of 477k in April of 2009, while single unit starts bottomed out at 360k in January of 2009. Housing starts remain far below the average of just over 1.5 million per year over the last 40+ years, and even farther below the 2.2 million peak of the most recent housing boom. Total starts have been under 1 million (SAAR) for 39 straight months, far longer than in previous housing recessions, averaging only 604k during this stretch. Since 1968, the U.S. population has grown from 200 million to over 300 million. Low housing starts not only impact transportation demand for building products but also for appliances, furniture, and other related items. The vertical bars represent recessions.

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Categories: Housing starts, sales, and inventory
Nov 082011

New home months of supply drops to post-recession low

Posted By: Tom Sanderson
Date Posted:  Tuesday, November 08, 2011  6:00 PM

The absolute inventory of new homes continues to fall and is now at 163 thousand (seasonally adjusted); lower than inventory levels in the 1960's. Seasonally adjusted new home inventory fell to 6.2 months of supply in September the lowest level since May 2006. The average months of supply over the last 48 years is also 6.2 so even by this measure the housing picture is improving. Any recovery in the rate of sales would quickly deplete the low absolute inventory level and lead to a significant increase in housing starts (and freight) but that does not appear likely in the near term. The vertical bars in the graphs represent recessions.

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Categories: Housing starts, sales, and inventory
Oct 072011

Housing starts fall back below 600k annual rate

Posted By: Tom Sanderson
Date Posted:  Friday, October 07, 2011  9:39 AM

Housing starts decreased to 571 thousand in August (seasonally adjusted annual rate) with single unit structures totaling 417 thousand. Total starts reached a low mark of 477k in April of 2009, while single unit starts bottomed out at 360k in January of 2009. Housing starts remain far below the average of just over 1.5 million per year over the last 40+ years, and even farther below the 2.2 million peak of the most recent housing boom. Total starts have been under 1 million (SAAR) for 38 straight months, far longer than in previous housing recessions, averaging only 602k during this stretch. Since 1968, the U.S. population has grown from 200 million to over 300 million. Low housing starts not only impact transportation demand for building products but also for appliances, furniture, and other related items. The vertical bars represent recessions.

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Categories: Housing starts, sales, and inventory
Oct 072011

New home inventory remains low

Posted By: Tom Sanderson
Date Posted:  Friday, October 07, 2011  9:32 AM

The absolute inventory of new homes continues to fall and is now at 162 thousand (seasonally adjusted); lower than inventory levels in the 1960's. Seasonally adjusted new home inventory held at 6.6 months of supply in August and has been between 6.5 and 6.6 for the last 5 months. The average months of supply over the last 48 years is 6.2 so even by this measure the housing picture is improving. Any recovery in the rate of sales would quickly deplete the low absolute inventory level and lead to a significant increase in housing starts (and freight) but that does not appear likely in the near term. The vertical bars in the graphs represent recessions.

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Categories: Housing starts, sales, and inventory
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