Feb 072012

Dry van capacity-demand balance near the long-term average

Posted By: Tom Sanderson
Date Posted:  Tuesday, February 07, 2012  11:57 AM

Morgan Stanley's dry van truckload freight index indicates capacity-demand balance remains very near the long term average for this time of year and that we are somewhat less capacity-constrained than at this time last year. Capacity had been tighter than 2010 through the Fall, but ended 2011 very similar to the end of 2010 and at the long-term average. Our view is that until the economy recovers, we are not likely to see significantly tighter capacity and that is unlikely until sometime later in 2012. The index measures incremental demand for dry-van truckload services compared to incremental supply. The higher the index the tighter is capacity relative to demand when compared to a prior period.

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Graph reproduced with permission from Morgan Stanley. For more information contact: Adam Longson at Adam.Longson@morganstanley.com or Bill Greene at William.Greene@morganstanley.com


Jan 092012

Flatbed capacity demand balance at long-term average for year-end

Posted By: Tom Sanderson
Date Posted:  Monday, January 09, 2012  1:56 PM

Morgan Stanley's flatbed freight index continues to fall, and capacity demand balance is now about normal relative to historical patterns. Capacity had eased early in the second quarter but tightened significantly coming out of Q2. The index softened through Q3 and into Q4 and ended the year below the 2010 line and very near the longer term average. The flatbed market was particularly hard hit by the fall off in housing starts, but gained ground with the growth in U. S. manufacturing. The index measures incremental demand for flatbed truckload services compared to incremental supply. The higher the index the tighter is capacity relative to demand when compared to a prior period.

image

Graph reproduced with permission from Morgan Stanley. For more information contact: Adam Longson at Adam.Longson@morganstanley.com or Bill Greene at William.Greene@morganstanley.com


Jan 062012

Refrigerated capacity remains tight, but much less so than in recent months

Posted By: Tom Sanderson
Date Posted:  Friday, January 06, 2012  8:49 AM

Morgan Stanley's refrigerated freight index declined dramatically in the last two months but refrigerated capacity remains tighter than normal for this time of year. The index was up and down through Q2 and early Q3, but then soared to a very high level not only for 2011, but for for the series before coming back to earth as the year ended. The pricing environment in this segment still favors the carriers at this point. The index measures incremental demand for refrigerated truckload services compared to incremental supply. The higher the index the tighter is capacity relative to demand when compared to a prior period.

image

Graph reproduced with permission from Morgan Stanley. For more information contact: Adam Longson at Adam.Longson@morganstanley.com or Bill Greene at William.Greene@morganstanley.com


Jan 052012

TL van capacity more readily available as 2011 ends

Posted By: Tom Sanderson
Date Posted:  Thursday, January 05, 2012  1:24 PM

Morgan Stanley's dry van truckload freight index indicates capacity-demand balance remains very near the long term average for this time of year and very similar to the end of 2010. Capacity had been more readily available than 2010 after the lines crossed in April, but they crossed again in September, indicating tighter capacity through the Fall. At year-end the 2011 and 2010 lines came back together. Our view is that until the economy recovers, we are not likely to see significantly tighter capacity and that is unlikely until some time later in 2012. The index measures incremental demand for dry-van truckload services compared to incremental supply. The higher the index the tighter is capacity relative to demand when compared to a prior period.

image

Graph reproduced with permission from Morgan Stanley. For more information contact: Adam Longson at Adam.Longson@morganstanley.com or Bill Greene at William.Greene@morganstanley.com


Dec 152011

Flatbed capacity remains tighter than normal for this time of year

Posted By: Tom Sanderson
Date Posted:  Thursday, December 15, 2011  9:00 AM

Morgan Stanley's flatbed freight index continues to fall, but remains high relative to historical patterns. Capacity had eased early in the second quarter but tightened significantly coming out of Q2. The index softened through Q3 and into Q4 but remains higher than all other reference years and is considerably higher (tighter capacity) than the average over the complete time frame. The flatbed market was particularly hard hit by the fall off in housing starts, but gained ground with the growth in U. S. manufacturing. The index measures incremental demand for flatbed truckload services compared to incremental supply. The higher the index the tighter is capacity relative to demand when compared to a prior period.

image

Graph reproduced with permission from Morgan Stanley. For more information contact: Adam Longson at Adam.Longson@morganstanley.com or Bill Greene at William.Greene@morganstanley.com


Dec 082011

Dry van capacity-demand balance at average level for this time of year

Posted By: Tom Sanderson
Date Posted:  Thursday, December 08, 2011  8:16 AM

Morgan Stanley's dry van truckload freight index indicates capacity-demand balance remains very near the long term average for this time of year but that capacity is more tight than in 2010. Capacity had been more readily available than 2010 since the lines crossed in April, but they crossed again in September, indicating tighter capacity through the Fall. Our view is that until the economy recovers, we are not likely to see significantly tighter capacity and that is unlikely until some time in 2012. The index measures incremental demand for dry-van truckload services compared to incremental supply. The higher the index the tighter is capacity relative to demand when compared to a prior period.

image

Graph reproduced with permission from Morgan Stanley. For more information contact: Adam Longson at Adam.Longson@morganstanley.com or Bill Greene at William.Greene@morganstanley.com


Nov 142011

Flatbed capacity remains very tight

Posted By: Tom Sanderson
Date Posted:  Monday, November 14, 2011  11:35 AM

Morgan Stanley's flatbed freight index continues to fall, but remains high relative to historical patterns. Capacity had eased early in the second quarter but tightened significantly coming out of Q2. The index softened through Q3 and into Q4 but remains higher than all other reference years and is considerably higher (tighter capacity) than the average over the complete time frame. The flatbed market was particularly hard hit by the fall off in housing starts, but gained ground with the growth in U. S. manufacturing. The index measures incremental demand for flatbed truckload services compared to incremental supply. The higher the index the tighter is capacity relative to demand when compared to a prior period.

image

Graph reproduced with permission from Morgan Stanley. For more information contact: Adam Longson at Adam.Longson@morganstanley.com or Bill Greene at William.Greene@morganstanley.com


Nov 112011

Refrigerated capacity remains extremely tight

Posted By: Tom Sanderson
Date Posted:  Friday, November 11, 2011  9:32 AM

Morgan Stanley's refrigerated truckload freight index shows very tight capacity. The index was up and down through Q2 and early Q3, but is now at a very high level not only for 2011, but for for the series. Refrigerated capacity is very tight relative to all of the reference years. The pricing environment in this segment clearly favors the carriers at this point. The index measures incremental demand for refrigerated truckload services compared to incremental supply. The higher the index the tighter is capacity relative to demand when compared to a prior period.

image

Graph reproduced with permission from Morgan Stanley. For more information contact: Adam Longson at Adam.Longson@morganstanley.com or Bill Greene at William.Greene@morganstanley.com


Nov 112011

Truckload van capacity-demand balance at normal levels

Posted By: Tom Sanderson
Date Posted:  Friday, November 11, 2011  9:29 AM

Morgan Stanley's dry van truckload freight index indicates capacity-demand balance remains very near the long term average for this time of year but that capacity is more tight than in 2010. Capacity had been more readily available than 2010 since the lines crossed in April, but they crossed again in September, indicating tighter capacity this year. Our view is that until the economy recovers, we are not likely to see significantly tighter capacity and that is unlikely until some time in 2012. The index measures incremental demand for dry-van truckload services compared to incremental supply. The higher the index the tighter is capacity relative to demand when compared to a prior period.

image

Graph reproduced with permission from Morgan Stanley. For more information contact: Adam Longson at Adam.Longson@morganstanley.com or Bill Greene at William.Greene@morganstanley.com


Oct 132011

Big shortage of refrigerated capacity

Posted By: Tom Sanderson
Date Posted:  Thursday, October 13, 2011  9:56 AM

Morgan Stanley's refrigerated truckload freight index shows very tight capacity. The index was up and down through Q2 and early Q3, but is now at a highpoint not only for 2011 but for for the series. Refrigerated capacity is very tight relative to all of the reference years. The pricing environment in this segment clearly favors the carriers at this point. The index measures incremental demand for refrigerated truckload services compared to incremental supply. The higher the index the tighter is capacity relative to demand when compared to a prior period.

image

Graph reproduced with permission from Morgan Stanley. For more information contact: Adam Longson at Adam.Longson@morganstanley.com or Bill Greene at William.Greene@morganstanley.com


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