Auto Sales & Assemblies

  • Auto Sales & Assemblies

    US auto and light truck assemblies remain below 2016 levels

    - by Tom Sanderson

    US auto and light truck assemblies remain below 2016 levels

    Annualized U.S. assemblies of autos and light trucks rose 0.5% to 11.23 million units in June (seasonally adjusted), but were down 6.6% from prior year. Assemblies have recovered somewhat since March when they were at the lowest level since February 2015. Seasonally adjusted assemblies have been at or above an 11-million unit pace since March 2015, but have only been above a 12-million unit pace once in the last 23 months (June 2016). Our graph is a three-month moving average of seasonally adjusted annualized assemblies. Using this moving average, year-over-year assemblies are down 3.8% and year-over-year change has hovered around or under 0 since April 2016. Each of the last 4 months are lower than any month since May 2016. With sales flat and inventories high, it is not surprising that assemblies are weak.

    The auto industry has come a long way since assemblies bottomed out at a 3.6 million-unit annual pace (seasonally adjusted) in January 2009. Average monthly seasonally adjusted assemblies were 11.4 million from January of 2001 through December of 2007, and averaged 11.7 and 11.8 million units in 2015 and 2016 respectively. The 2017 YTD average is 11.3 million.

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  • Auto Sales & Assemblies

    Auto sales continue to slide, while light truck sales continue to grow

    - by Tom Sanderson

    Auto sales continue to slide, while light truck sales continue to grow

    Annualized seasonally adjusted U.S. sales (SAAR) of domestic and foreign autos and light trucks fell to 16.41 million in June, coming in below the consensus forecast (16.6 million). Sales were 2.1% below prior year sales and were down 1.0% from prior month. Year-over-year sales for our three month moving average (graphed) were down 2.8%. Imported and domestic light truck sales performed much more strongly than car sales. Total year-to-date sales are down 2.2% over 2016, with light trucks up 4.6% and cars down 12.1%. Light trucks accounted for 63% of all unit sales year-to-date, up from 59% for the same period last year. After several years of rising sales, sales will decline slightly this year (red line on graph).

    Sales set an all time record in 2016 at 17.46 million following 2015’s then-record level of 17.40 million. To put those numbers in perspective though, they narrowly eclipsed 2000 (17.35 million) and 2001 (17.12 million). In 2017, sales are expected to be down slightly, but with inventories high, production is likely to be down more significantly from 2016 levels.

    Full-year sales total for 2014 were 16.5 million up 6% from 15.6 million in 2013 and right in line with the prerecession 2001-2007 average (16.7 million). The recessionary low point for auto sales occurred during the first six months of 2009, when annualized sales averaged only 9.6 million units. Auto purchases represent a large portion of the typical household budget. Our graph shows a 3-month moving average of seasonally adjusted annual rates to smooth out some of the month-to-month volatility.

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  • Auto Sales & Assemblies

    U.S. auto and light truck assemblies remain weak

    - by Tom Sanderson

    U.S. auto and light truck assemblies remain weak

    Annualized U.S. assemblies of autos and light trucks fell 1.7% to 11.29 million units in May (seasonally adjusted), and were down 0.4% from prior year. Assemblies have recovered somewhat since March when they were at the lowest level since February 2015. Seasonally adjusted assemblies have been at or above an 11-million unit pace since March 2015, but have only been above a 12-million unit pace once in the last 22 months (June 2016). Our graph is a three-month moving average of seasonally adjusted annualized assemblies. Using this moving average, year-over-year assemblies were down 3.2% and have hovered around or under 0 since May 2016. Each of the last 3 months are lower than any month since May 2016. With sales flat and inventories high, it is not surprising that assemblies are weak.

    The auto industry has come a long way since assemblies bottomed out at a 3.6 million-unit annual pace (seasonally adjusted) in January 2009. Average monthly seasonally adjusted assemblies were 11.4 million from January of 2001 through December of 2007, and have been averaged 11.7 and 11.8 million units in 2015 and 2016 respectively.

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  • Auto Sales & Assemblies

    Auto sales decline in May

    - by Tom Sanderson

    Auto sales decline in May

    Annualized seasonally adjusted U.S. sales (SAAR) of domestic and foreign autos and light trucks fell to 16.58 million in May, coming in below the consensus forecast (16.9 million). Sales were 3.1% below prior year sales and were down 1.4% from prior month. Year-over-year sales for our three month moving average (graphed) was down 2.2%. Imported and domestic light truck sales performed much more strongly than car sales. Total year-to-date sales are down 2.0% over 2016, with light trucks up 4.8% and cars down 11.7%. Light trucks accounted for 63% of all unit sales year-to-date, up from 59% for the same period last year. After several years of rising sales, it appears that sales will decline slightly this year (red line on graph).

    Sales set an all time record in 2016 at 17.46 million following 2015’s then-record level of 17.40 million. To put those numbers in perspective though, they narrowly eclipsed 2000 (17.35 million) and 2001 (17.12 million). In 2017, sales are expected to be down slightly, but with inventories high, production is likely to be down more significantly from 2016 levels.

    Full-year sales total for 2014 were 16.5 million up 6% from 15.6 million in 2013 and right in line with the prerecession 2001-2007 average (16.7 million). The recessionary low point for auto sales occurred during the first six months of 2009, when annualized sales averaged only 9.6 million units. Auto purchases represent a large portion of the typical household budget, and improving auto sales is directly correlated to rising confidence among American consumers. Our graph shows a 3-month moving average of seasonally adjusted annual rates to smooth out some of the month-to-month volatility.

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  • Auto Sales & Assemblies

    Auto assemblies at lowest level since February 2015

    - by Tom Sanderson

    Auto assemblies at lowest level since February 2015

    Annualized U.S. assemblies of autos and light trucks fell 3.6% to 11.12 million units in March (seasonally adjusted), and were down 4.5% from prior year. Assemblies were at the lowest level since February 2015. Seasonally adjusted assemblies have been above an 11-million unit pace since March 2015, but have only been above a 12-million unit pace once in the last 20 months (June 2016). Our graph is a three-month moving average of seasonally adjusted annualized assemblies. Using this moving average, year-over-year assemblies were down 3.4% and have hovered around or under 0 since May 2016. With sales flat and inventories high, it is not surprising that assemblies are weak.

    The auto industry has come a long way since assemblies bottomed out at a 3.6 million-unit annual pace (seasonally adjusted) in January 2009. Average monthly seasonally adjusted assemblies were 11.4 million from January of 2001 through December of 2007, and have been averaged 11.7 and 11.8 million units in 2015 and 2016 respectively.

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  • Auto Sales & Assemblies

    Disappointing auto sales in March

    - by Tom Sanderson

    Disappointing auto sales in March

    Annualized seasonally adjusted U.S. sales (SAAR) of domestic and foreign autos and light trucks fell to 16.53 million in March, coming in below the consensus forecast (17.3 million). Sales were at the lowest monthly level since February 2015. Sales were 0.3% below prior year sales and were down 5.5% from prior month. Year-over-year sales for our three month moving average (graphed) was down 0.8%. Imported and domestic light truck sales performed much more strongly than car sales. Total year-to-date sales are down 1.4% over 2016, with light trucks up 6.3% and cars down 12.3%. Light trucks accounted for 63% of all unit sales year-to-date, up from 58.4% for the same period last year. After several years of rising sales, we seem to have reached a plateau in auto and light truck sales (red line on graph).

    Sales set an all time record in 2016 at 17.46 million following 2015’s then-record level of 17.40 million. To put those numbers in perspective though, they narrowly eclipsed 2000 (17.35 million) and 2001 (17.12 million). In 2017, sales are expected to be down slightly, but with inventories high, production is likely to be down more significantly from 2016 levels.

    Full-year sales total for 2014 were 16.5 million up 6% from 15.6 million in 2013 and right in line with the prerecession 2001-2007 average (16.7 million). The recessionary low point for auto sales occurred during the first six months of 2009, when annualized sales averaged only 9.6 million units. Auto purchases represent a large portion of the typical household budget, and improving auto sales is directly correlated to rising confidence among American consumers. Our graph shows a 3-month moving average of seasonally adjusted annual rates to smooth out some of the month-to-month volatility.

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  • Auto Sales & Assemblies

    US auto assemblies remain in holding pattern at 11.7 million units

    - by Tom Sanderson

    US auto assemblies remain in holding pattern at 11.7 million units

    Annualized U.S. assemblies of autos and light trucks increased 0.8% to 11.67 million units in February (seasonally adjusted), but were down 2.5% from prior year. Seasonally adjusted assemblies have been above an 11-million unit pace since March 2015, but have only been above a 12-million unit pace once in the last 8 months. Our graph is a three-month moving average of seasonally adjusted annualized assemblies. Using this moving average, year-over-year assemblies were down 0.5% and have hovered around or under 0 since May 2016.

    The auto industry has come a long way since assemblies bottomed out at a 3.6 million-unit annual pace (seasonally adjusted) in January 2009. Average monthly seasonally adjusted assemblies were 11.4 million from January of 2001 through December of 2007, and have been averaged 11.7 and 11.8 million units in 2015 and 2016 respectively.

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  • Auto Sales & Assemblies

    Auto sales flat in February, down slightly YTD

    - by Tom Sanderson

    Auto sales flat in February, down slightly YTD

    Annualized seasonally adjusted U.S. sales (SAAR) of domestic and foreign autos and light trucks were flat at 17.5 million in February, coming in below the consensus forecast (17.7 million). Sales were 0.8% below prior year sales and were down 0.1% from prior month. Year-over-year sales for our three month moving average (graphed) was up 0.9%. Imported and domestic light truck sales performed much more strongly than car sales. Total year-to-date sales are down 1.4% over 2016, with light trucks up 6.6% and cars down 12.8%. Light trucks accounted for 64% of all unit sales year-to-date. After several years of rising sales, we seem to have reached a plateau in auto and light truck sales (red line on graph).

    Sales set an all time record in 2016 at 17.46 million following 2015’s then-record level of 17.40 million. To put those numbers in perspective though, they narrowly eclipsed 2000 (17.35 million) and 2001 (17.12 million). In 2017, sales are expected to be flat, but with inventories high, production is likely to be down from 2016 levels.

    Full-year sales total for 2014 were 16.5 million up 6% from 15.6 million in 2013 and right in line with the prerecession 2001-2007 average (16.7 million). The recessionary low point for auto sales occurred during the first six months of 2009, when annualized sales averaged only 9.6 million units. Auto purchases represent a large portion of the typical household budget, and improving auto sales is directly correlated to rising confidence among American consumers. Our graph shows a 3-month moving average of seasonally adjusted annual rates to smooth out some of the month-to-month volatility.

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  • Auto Sales & Assemblies

    U.S. auto assemblies flatten our near pre-recession levels

    - by Tom Sanderson

    U.S. auto assemblies flatten our near pre-recession levels

    Annualized U.S. assemblies of autos and light trucks increased 0.1% to 12.04 million units in September (seasonally adjusted), and were up 1.0% from prior year. Seasonally adjusted assemblies have been above an 11-million unit pace all year and above a 12-million unit pace in 3 of the last 4 months. Our graph is a three-month moving average of seasonally adjusted annualized assemblies. Using this moving average, year-over-year assemblies were down 1.8%, the third consecutive monthly decline.

    The auto industry has come a long way since assemblies bottomed out at a 3.6 million-unit annual pace (seasonally adjusted) in January 2009. Average monthly seasonally adjusted assemblies were 11.4 million from January of 2001 through December of 2007, and we have been averaging 11.7 and 11.8 million units in 2015 and 2016 respectively.

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  • Auto Sales & Assemblies

    Year-to-date auto sales nearly flat with 2015

    - by Tom Sanderson

    Year-to-date auto sales nearly flat with 2015

    Annualized seasonally adjusted U.S. sales (SAAR) of domestic and foreign autos and light trucks increased to 17.7 million in September, coming in above the consensus forecast (17.4 million). Sales were 1.8% below prior year sales but were up 4.4% from prior month. Year-over-year sales for our three month moving average (graphed) was down 1.3%, the 5th consecutive monthly decline. Imported and domestic light truck sales performed much more strongly than auto sales. Total year-to-date sales are up 0.4% over 2015, with light trucks up 7.6% and cars down 8.7%. After several years of rising sales, we seem to have reached a plateau in auto and light truck sales.

    Sales set an all time record in 2015 at 17.39 million, narrowly eclipsing 2000 (17.35 million) and 2001 (17.12 million). The full-year sales total for 2014 was 16.5 million up 6% from 15.6 million in 2013 and right in line with the prerecession 2001-2007 average (16.7 million). The recessionary low point for auto sales occurred during the first six months of 2009, when annualized sales averaged only 9.6 million units. Auto purchases represent a large portion of the typical household budget, and improving auto sales is directly correlated to rising confidence among American consumers. Our graph shows a 3-month moving average of seasonally adjusted annual rates to smooth out some of the month-to-month volatility.

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